I guess they tell their own story pretty well. Lost about 2 minutes in the first 5k, and all of that in the first 2k. If I was going to have a good day though, that 15-20k split should have stayed down around 4:10 or 4:11 pace, and I should have stayed fairly comfortable up to at least 25k. The set-in of discomfort in my legs around 18k was the sign that the gamble wasn't going to pay off. The slower 25-30k split was due to a 1-minute toi-toi break. That is now my third marathon in a row where this has happened after getting through the first three unscathed. And then things get a bit ugly over the last 12 km. I think at least a small part of the drift over the final 12 km was due to some mental capitulation once I knew that even a really ball and leg busting exertion would only get me a couple more seconds per km...nowhere near enough to salvage the torpedoed goals.