If this were a normal marathon week, i.e. with the marathon on Sunday, then today would be Wednesday. But Ohtawara is always on the national holiday of the 23rd of November, no matter the day of the week, so this year it is Friday, making for a nice long weekend.
The last week of training, if you can call the late stage of the taper "training", went fairly well. If I did anything wrong it was probably to run just a little too much. But if this is the case, I don't think it was by a big amount, and the rest of this week will be very quiet. Maybe just a light run tomorrow with a few stretches at race pace.
Last week was as follows:
Mon: rest (was suffering from blisters as you may recall)
Tue: 12k easy at 4:45/km
Wed: 8.5 km of easy jogging and 5 km of 1k repeats at target race pace on the track with Joachim, Paddy & Adam. We tried to run the pace by feel and were a bit slow at first (4:12, 4:20, then a bit fast, 4:01, 3:57, 3:57)
Thur: 7.5 km on treadmill with 6k at about 4:00/km. 750 m swim
Fri: Nothing
Sat: 3.3 km easy followed by 10 km at race pace. Again, went out too fast. Three x 3.3 km loops at 3:59, 4:03, 4:08
Sun: 14 km running easy by feel. Felt fairly easy, but was in the low 4:20s for much of the run. I probably ran 4 or 5 km too long for this run, but bugger it, I also run because I enjoy it, and this was a nice morning for a run.
Week total: 60 km
What I've found over the past week is that 4:20/km feels like an easy pace and is one I am sure would have me still feeling pretty strong at 30 km. If I wanted to run the marathon as "train-through" race with only the thought of posting a solid but not best possible time, then 4:20 would be a good target pace. At the other end of the spectrum, I can feel aerobically fairly comfortable at 4:00/km, but it is clear that this would trash my legs and energy system by 20 to 25km and who knows how ugly it could get over the final 15 km.
My conclusion then is that 4:05 (2:52:18 marathon) is the fastest pace I could attempt to run, but I am pretty confident it would still result in a nasty fade that could see me struggling to squeak in under the 3 hour mark. I think that 4:10/km (2:55:49 marathon) should see me to 30k, after which it is hard to say what would happen. A faster finish from 30k is very unlikely, so targeting 4:10 pace would probably leave me with almost no chance cracking the 2:54:47 PB, but a reasonable chance of staying under 3 hours.
So that's my analysis and feelings; I'll leave it up to yourselves to conclude what I should do. I will reflect on this over the next few days and make my own decision. I'll probably decide on the day, most likely right about the time it is too late to undo the damage of yet another too-fast start! My honest feelings, though, are that a PB is a less than 50/50 chance.
On the body front: all the training-induced leg niggles have cleared up. My lower back and hips are as good as can be expected, the blisters and infected toe have all healed. The only real niggle is the long-standing Achilles. No doubt it will nag away until after 10k when it is warmed up. Later in the race other pains will overwhelm it anyway.
So that's it, nothing left to do except rest and carbo load. Thanks for the support and interest. I'll let you know how it goes. I can tell, you, I'll be looking forward to my first beer in a month at around 2:00 on Friday!!
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7 comments:
Well done staying off the beer Stephen, I'm sure that is not an easy thing for you to have done.
Well "if I were you" I'd just aim at a pace that will get you a couple of minutes under 3 hrs and at the 30km mark bring it home with the PB in mind.
If you don't eat any carbs today Monday and tomorrow and then load up on Weds and Thursday you will be surprised, I think, just how much you might have left in the tank for a fast finish.
Anyway don't take anything off the table as yet. Thinking about what you won't be able to do, although it may be realistic, won't help your preparation.
Remember PBs aren't what you think are possible. By their very nature they are small miracles ;) Don't judge future outcomes on past experience, too much, that is unless you want past results.
Enjoy the race regardless and have an extra beer for us bloggers ;)
Yes, have one for me too!
That's a great (and realistic) summary. Are you going to run by splits, or use the HR monitor (if you can find the strap)?
The 10k 'race pace' was a bit ominous. Whatever you decide, I'd suggest a first km in 4:08 rather than 3:59.
I still think some schedule that has you under PB pace would be advantageous. Perhaps 4:07s? If the taper has worked, the final 15k may be pretty rather than ugly.
I think Ewen's right: 4:07.
You're healthy, your training has gone well, you are within shouting distance of having a 50/50 shot at a PB (by your own description, using your analytical mind and objective reasoning). 4:07s would put you in position for a PB. You gave up beer, man! It'd be a shame not to go for it. If you blow up my guess is it'll come at 35K, not 30K, and you'll struggle through and have another quality marathon done. Gambatte!
Pete
You have put in an enormous amount of training over the last months and I don't think you should be worrying about fading too much at the end unless of course you just go way too fast early.
Remember all those times and runs you are basing your predictions on were done on tired legs. It is amazing what a week of rest will make you capable of on the day, so don't sell yourself too short.
Good luck and can't wait to hear how you go.
Keep running hard for the whole distance! You are definitely prepared well for Ohtawara.
You should have full of confident and think what you did from early summer. Your efforts will pay you off, I believe.
I will cheer you on from Kyushu in natural Onsen called "Hell valley".
Steve,
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right" (Henry Ford)
Wow, Friday. I can't believe its come around so quickly.
What can I say other than GOOD LUCK! Oh, and have a beer for me too :-)
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